Cellular Changes Ahead
Cellular Changes Ahead: Watch Out for Technology Shifts
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The cellular phone industry has been going through an upheaval and consolidation. The surviving carriers, many operating under new names, will change their offerings fairly substantially over the next two to three years. If you are planning a cellular phone purchase or intend to sign a new contract, make sure you play under the new rules and programs not the old ones.
Generational Shift
First, cell phone technology is going through another generational shift. The carriers are already replacing older generation 2G and 2.5G technology with a new 3G capability. The replacements are happening first in the larger population areas, and will filter throughout their systems over a few years. The technology will allow for faster connectivity to data services, and more capabilities such as video for voice services. The higher speed data capability could mean less need or interest in WIFI hotspots, and greater flexibility for connection to the Internet and your office. The right mental picture of this is that email, voice mail, video mail and short messages are all just messages, regardless of format. Our cell phones are message handling devices, and should handle messages in any format.
New Equipment
Second, instruments have to change to accommodate the new generation technology. Just like we went from analog to digital hand sets, the phones need to recognize the new capabilities of the cell phone towers. There will also be multiple technologies built into the handsets. These technologies will not only support the cell phone system that they are sold for, but to also connect to wireless data (WIFI) systems inside of businesses to take advantage of voice over IP over WIFI (VoFI). Many cell phones will have international standard support as well.
Finally, we will have additional choice in the phone operating systems from Pocket PC to Palm to Symbian to Linux. Connectivity to systems like Microsoft Exchange for email will be available regardless of platform, and improvements in web browsers and short messenger service (SMS) is expected as well. Consumer features such as still or video cameras and MP3 player capability will not always be available in business instruments. Smaller size is almost a sure thing with one key factor keeping the instruments somewhat bigger: the need to be able to type in a message. Today this is best done through a thumbpad keyboard or text auto-completion features. Our best hope is for voice recognition to become good enough to be useful, but don’t expect that for another few years.
New Contracts and Lingo
Third, contracts with the wireless providers will evolve. Today, you can add data for a small fee to most vendor’s programs, but if you want data on a continuous basis for use on a PC, you have to have a separate contract for the PC card. There should be convergence in this area, much like the Treo 600 and 650 have done in the past allowing voice and data on a single instrument. International features such as toll free calling to
The carriers understand the benefits of using Voice over IP (VOIP) and you should expect offerings to support VOIP features in conjunction with your office phone system. Over time it is reasonable to expect a single phone that can be used in the office, car and home that connects to your office telephone system when you are in the office and to the cellular or WIFI/VoFI systems when you are out of the office.
What To Do?
So what should you do about these circumstances? In the short term, you can’t control the speed of the rollout from the vendors, but you can be aware of the changes that are being made in your market. If a vendor makes new capability available, this may be motivation to switch to their service offering, particularly if your carrier has no plans to upgrade their system for similar functionality. You will encounter terms like GSM/GPRS/Edge (TDMA technologies), CDMA, WCDMA, and CDMA2000 1xEV-DO.
Each of these describes a connection technology that the cell phone carriers use. Suppliers like Qualcomm and Ericsson have fairly good, although technical, explanations of these technologies are their web sites. GSM is the most common global connection method today. Your key focus should be reviewing the new, higher data connection speeds, which are represented by WCDMA, and 1xEV-DO. Additionally, you should consider where you intend to use your phone, whether it is locally, regionally, nationally, or internationally.
Buying new phones will become more challenging in the short term. There are events where phones are introduced, like the Consumer Electronics Show. You will definitely want to time your purchases after events like this, so you can be aware of new vendor offerings. There are also email news services like c|net (www.cnet.com) or mobiledia (www.mobiledia.com) that have short updates or reviews on changes in cell phone technologies. Sometimes competitive shopping sites like mobileplanet (www.mobileplanet.com) can be helpful as well. You will want the person responsible for cell phone choices in your organization to look at these reviews. Additionally, be cautious or don’t buy instruments that are offered as special deals.
Many times these are end of life products that need to be sold to make way for new products. In general, combination devices will be the wave of the cell phone future. You will find products that will handle your voice calls efficiently, provide data connection when you need it, and allow you to send and receive email conveniently. Watch for additional features you desire: WIFI, VOIP, camera, size, speaker phone, MP3 player, video streaming and other technological advancements. If you intend to do international travel, you will definitely want to watch for phones that support GSM. This international capability is available today from multiple carriers, and should be available in new generation products. One current example is the Cingular Treo 650 Quadband phone.
Once most contracts have their subscription time frame fulfilled, the carrier will continue to provide service at the same rate. You might be able to get a better rate by negotiating a new contract, but will be locked into the contract for another one, two or three years.
As you have probably already discovered, many times it is cheaper to switch carriers and get a new cell phone than it is to renew your existing contract. With the portability of phone numbers today, many times you can even keep your old phone number when changing contracts. The best strategy is to wait and watch for the new generation service, get a new generation phone with your contract, and read the fine print carefully. Remember that volume contracts can pool minutes, and get additional features for not additional charges. Letting everyone in the organization negotiate and manage their own contract is generally a bad strategy, and does not provide economies of scale.
The Future Is Bright
If you follow the strategies outlined, you will be better served over the next three to five years. Since the industry is evolving rapidly with their newfound capabilities and from competition, you will need to read and assess carefully the offerings made by any carrier. The fees, capabilities, restrictions and instruments required will change noticeably and rapidly for the next two to three years.
Randy Johnston is executive vice president for K2 Enterprises, a top technology ECPE provider and also is Executive Vice President for Network Management Group, Inc., an infrastructure consulting group based in Hutchinson, KS.
